Identifying hotspots and management of critical ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta Region, China

Rapid urbanization has altered many ecosystems, causing a decline in many ecosystem services, generating serious ecological crisis. To cope with these challenges, we presented a comprehensive framework comprising five core steps for identifying and managing hotspots of critical ecosystem services in a rapid urbanizing region. This framework was applied in the case study of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region. The study showed that there was large spatial heterogeneity in the hotspots of ecosystem services in the region, hotspots of supporting services and regulating services aggregately distributing in the southwest mountainous areas while hotspots of provisioning services mainly in the northeast plain, and hotspots of cultural services widespread in the waterbodies and southwest mountainous areas. The regionalization of the critical ecosystem services was made through the hotspot analysis. This study provided valuable information for environmental planning and management in a rapid urbanizing region and helped improve China's ecological redlines policy at regional scale

Correlations between aesthetic preferences of river and landscape characters

Some landscape characters put great influences on the aesthetic preferences of a river. Finding out these characters will provide for river landscape design and management with explicit keystones. In this paper, 23 sample areas of rivers were selected in Xuzhou, China, and 15 landscape characters of rivers were identified. The photos taken at the sample areas were as stimuli, and undergraduate students were respondents. The results demonstrate that the aesthetic preferences of photos judged one-by-one and judged together receive similar results; the preference scores of deflective views are significantly higher than the ones of opposite views; for urban rivers, “river accessibility” and “number of colours” are reliably positive predictors to aesthetic preferences, “wood diversity index” and “plants on water” are negative ones; for rural rivers, “coverage of riparian vegetation”, “perspective” and “wood diversity index” are reliably positive predictors to aesthetic preferences. First published online: 14 Dec 201

The Complex Dynamics of a Stochastic Predator-Prey Model

A modified stochastic ratio-dependent Leslie-Gower predator-prey model is formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model, we focus on the existence of equilibria, local, and global stability; for the stochastic model, by applying Itô formula and constructing Lyapunov functions, some qualitative properties are given, such as the existence of global positive solutions, stochastic boundedness, and the global asymptotic stability. Based on these results, we perform a series of numerical simulations and make a comparative analysis of the stability of the model system within deterministic and stochastic environments

Stochastic Dynamics of an SIRS Epidemic Model with Ratio-Dependent Incidence Rate

We investigate the complex dynamics of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate of saturated mass action which depends on the ratio of the number of infectious individuals to that of susceptible individuals. We first deal with the boundedness, dissipation, persistence, and the stability of the disease-free and endemic points of the deterministic model. And then we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solutions, stochastic boundedness, and permanence for the stochastic epidemic model. Furthermore, we perform some numerical examples to validate the analytical findings. Needless to say, both deterministic and stochastic epidemic models have their important roles

Optimizing plant density and nitrogen application to manipulate tiller growth and increase grain yield and nitrogen-use efficiency in winter wheat

The growth of wheat tillers and plant nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) will gradually deteriorate in response to high plant density and over-application of N. Therefore, in this study, a 2-year field study was conducted with three levels of plant densities (75 ×104plants ha−1, D1; 300 ×104plants ha−1, D2; 525 ×104plants ha−1, D3) and three levels of N application rates (120 kg N ha−1, N1; 240 kg N ha−1, N2; 360 kg N ha−1, N3) to determine how to optimize plant density and N application to regulate tiller growth and to assess the contribution of such measures to enhancing grain yield (GY) and NUE. The results indicated that an increase in plant density significantly increased the number of superior tillers and the number of spikes per m2(SN), resulting in a higher GY and higher partial factor productivity of applied N (PFPN). However, there was no significant difference in GY and PFPN between plant densities D2 and D3. Increasing the N application rate significantly increased the vascular bundle number (NVB) and area (AVB), however, excess N application (N3) did not significantly improve these parameters. N application significantly increased GY, whereas there was a significant decrease in PFPN in response to an increase in N application rate. The two years results suggested that increasing the plant density (from 75 ×104plants ha−1to 336 ×104plants ha−1) in conjunction with the application of 290 kg N ha−1N will maximize GY, and also increase PFPN(39.7 kg kg−1), compared with the application of 360 kg N ha−1N. Therefore, an appropriate combination of increased planting density with reduced N application could regulate tiller number and favor the superior tiller group, to produce wheat populations with enhanced yield and NUE

Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variations in the upper Hanjiang River region, China over the past 6650 years

The upper Hanjiang River region is the recharge area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The region is under construction of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Water Transfer Project in China. Monsoon precipitation variations in this region are critical to water resource and security of China. In this study, high-resolution monsoon precipitation variations were reconstructed in the upper Hanjiang River region over the past 6650 years from delta O-18 and delta C-13 records of four stalagmites in Xianglong cave. The long term increasing trend of stalagmite delta O-18 record since the middle Holocene is consistent with other speleothem records from monsoonal China. This trend follows the gradually decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which indicates that solar insolation may control the orbital-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations. Despite the declined EASM intensity since the middle Holocene, local precipitation may not have decreased remarkably, as revealed by the delta C-13 records. A series of centennial- to decadal-scale cyclicity was observed, with quasi-millennium-, quasi-century-, 57-, 36- and 22-year cycles by removing the long-term trend of stalagmite delta O-18 record. Increased monsoon precipitation during periods of 4390-3800 a BP, 3590-2960 a BP, 2050-1670 a BP and 1110-790 a BP had caused four super-floods in the upper reach of Hanjiang River. Dramatically dry climate existed in this region during the 5.0 ka and 2.8 ka events, coinciding with notable droughts in other regions of monsoonal China. Remarkably intensified and southward Westerly jet, together with weakened summer monsoon, may delay the onset of rainy seasons, resulting in synchronous decreasing of monsoon precipitation in China during the two events. During the 4.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age, the upper Hanjiang River region was wet, which was similar to the climate conditions in central and southern China, but was the opposite of drought observed in northern China. We propose that weakened summer monsoon and less strengthened or normal Westerly jet may cause rain belt stay longer in the southward region, which reduced rainfall in northern China but enhanced it in central and southern China. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.We gratefully acknowledge the NBRPC (2013CB955902), NSFC (41372192; 41290254; 41230524; 41023006), and the WLF-CAS for funding this research. This study was also partially supported by Taiwan MOST (103-2119-M-002-022) and NTU (101R7625) grants. H.C. and R.L.E. received financial support from the U.S. NSF (EAR-0908792 and EAR-1211299), and S.F.M.B. received support from the Swiss NSF (CRSI22_132646/1).This is the final version. It was first published by NPG at http://www.nature.com/srep/2015/150717/srep12284/full/srep12284.html#author-information

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events